NATO's gathering of foreign ministers in
Bucharest made headlines Tuesday by reaffirming a 2008 invitation for
Ukraine to join the alliance. Here's a breakdown of the commitment's
main points, plus key comments from NATO Secretary General Jens
Stoltenberg as well as reasons for skepticism of this maximalist stance
on Ukraine.
The 2008 promise
NATO's 2008 commitment to eventual Ukrainian membership was produced at the behest of then-President George W. Bush:
NATO welcomes Ukraine's and Georgia's Euro-Atlantic
aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries
will become members of NATO. [...]MAP is the next step for Ukraine and
Georgia on their direct way to membership.Today we make clear that we
support these countries' applications for MAP.
MAP is NATO's Membership Action Plan, a step for which Ukraine still has yet to be approved as of 2022.
While reiterating to Moscow the alliance's Open Door policy, the same statement also spoke
with now-strange positivity about the NATO-Russia partnership,
describing it as grounded in mutual support for "democracy, civil
liberties, and political pluralism" and concerned with "common goals and
interests." The statement anticipates continued NATO-Russia cooperation
on counterterrorism, nonproliferation, "military interoperability,
theater missile defense, search and rescue at sea, and civil emergency
planning."
The 2022 update
On Tuesday, a new NATO statement reaffirmed the 2008 promise. It condemned Russian war crimes and allies (chiefly Belarus) and pledged:
- "never [to] recognize Russia's illegal annexations"
- to expand "support to Ukraine as it continues to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity and our shared values"
- to "maintain our support for as long as necessary"
- to support "Ukraine's long-term efforts on its path of post-war reconstruction and reforms"
- to strengthen NATO's "partnership with Ukraine as it advances its Euro-Atlantic aspirations"
Previously, on Monday, Stoltenberg said the alliance "cannot let [Russian President Vladimir] Putin win" and that it is in NATO nations' "own security interest to support Ukraine."
In another speech
on Tuesday, Stoltenberg acknowledged the war would likely end at the
negotiating table but seemed to describe an absolute Ukrainian victory
as the only acceptable diplomatic outcome.
Reasons for skepticism
Tuesday's statement "extends a tragic policy blunder and threatens to prolong the war in Ukraine," argued
DEFP Policy Director Benjamin H. Friedman, because the Open Door policy
"hardens Russian antipathy, encouraging its aggression, without
actually helping Ukraine."
Moreover:
- NATO's eastward expansion has "reduced the prospects for European defense autonomy." [DEFP / Rajan Menon]
- Warnings of further Russian aggrandizement in the absence of a
complete Ukrainian triumph are likely overstated. NATO Europe is more
than equipped to counter Russia. [DEFP / Joshua Shifrinson]
- Ukraine should consider the option of neutrality, not least as a valuable negotiating chip. [DEFP / Stephen Van Evera]
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